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The Analyst: The movement of the yen indicates that the market is surprised by the inflation outlook of the Bank of Japan.
Gelonghui January 24 | The yen's reaction to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting shows a surprising hawkishness. Francisco Pesoale from ING Groep believes this is mainly related to the upward adjustment of overall and core CPI forecasts. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike of 25 basis points met expectations, but policymakers now anticipate an inflation rate of 2.4% for 2025, up from the previous 1.9%. Pesoale stated in a report that the dollar once fell below 155 against the yen, before rebounding due to cautious remarks made by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuuo at the press conference. Ueda did not hint at the timing of the next rate hike or further actions.
Whether Japan's interest rates can continue to normalize depends on how well Shishiba Nobu and Trump are conversing.
In light of Japan's trade surplus with the USA, Shigeru Ishiba must persuade Trump not to increase tariffs on Japanese commodities.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Interest rates are still far below the estimated neutral level.
The Bank of Japan announced a 0.25% interest rate increase, reaching the highest level since 2008. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the rate remains well below the estimated neutral rate, and if the economy and inflation meet forecasts, the central bank will raise the policy rate and adjust the support of monetary policy, emphasizing that there are no preset ideas. At the same time, the central bank needs to observe the impact of rate hikes on the economy and believes that Japan is more suited to gradually increase rates in multiple phases while carefully examining the effects of the policy. He continued to point out that many companies have indicated they will continue to raise wages, and various data also show that the economic situation in the USA is good. Along with the policies of Trump, the situation is evolving.
Express News | Economists: Trump's economic policies remain the main risk for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.
A high point in nearly 17 years! The Bank of Japan raised interest rates as scheduled, and the outlook for the yen depends on two key factors!
Will this year's interest rate hike cycle continue.
Institutions: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike indicates readiness for the normalization of MMF policy.
On January 24, Glonghui reported that Chris Scicluna, head of Daito Capital Markets Europe Research Department, stated that the Bank of Japan's decision to raise the policy interest rate to 0.5% indicates its determination to guide the economy away from decades of ultra-low interest rates. Although the rate hike itself was widely anticipated, the true significance lies in the signal sent by the Bank of Japan, indicating that Japan may finally be ready for the normalization of monetary policy. The current policy rate is the highest level since 2008, and the Bank of Japan seems to be aiming to push it higher to a new peak not seen since 1995. "The Bank of Japan has embarked on this journey, which will test how far it can go."