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BOCOM International: Hong Kong residential property prices could rise by more than 10%, with a chance of returning to previous highs within two to three years.
The firm maintains its overweight rating on Hong Kong's real estate sector, citing expectations of margin expansion that could lead to upward revisions in earnings forecasts and further valuation upside. It remains positive on local property leader Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) and maintains a buy recommendation.
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Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for Hong Kong residential property price growth in 2024 to 15%, remains positive on Henderson Land (00012.HK) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK), and lowers target price for New World Development (00017.HK).
Goldman Sachs published a research report noting that Hong Kong’s residential prices and office rents have performed stronger than expected year-to-date, prompting the firm to revise its forecast upward once again. It now expects Hong Kong residential prices to rise by 15% this year (previously forecast at a 12% increase), while maintaining its forecasts for 2027 and 2028 unchanged at increases of 7% and 4%, respectively. The bank continues to favor property developer stocks, anticipating they will benefit from a multi-year upcycle in Hong Kong’s residential market. The report noted that residential prices have already risen by 8% year-to-date, with primary-market sales volumes increasing by 48%. Rental growth has been slower, rising just 1.2% year-to-date, reflecting a partial shift in demand from renting to buying. Regarding office space, Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for...
Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong’s residential market recovery remains robust amidst macroeconomic instability, maintaining the forecast of a 12% rise in property prices this year.
Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that despite an unstable macroeconomic environment, Hong Kong's residential market recovery has remained robust. The Centaline City Leading Index (CCL) has recorded a cumulative increase of 6.6% year-to-date, with total transaction volumes in March still rising by 17% year-on-year to 6,000 transactions. Among developers, Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK) outperformed the industry in the first quarter, achieving approximately HKD 13 billion in contracted sales, capturing a 25% market share, while Henderson Land (00012.HK) and New World Development (00017.HK) accounted for 9% and 6%, respectively. The firm maintains its forecast of a 12% year-on-year increase in property prices for this year. In the office segment, the recovery pace exceeded the firm’s expectations, driven by
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