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Microsoft, Nvidia and Nasdaq continue to refresh their highs, while the S&P index's bullish trend takes a pause; Adobe soared over 14%, and its target price was raised by several major banks after its earnings report; The first batch of generative AI application companies went public, and the "medical diagnosis" Tempus AI rose nearly 9% on its first day of trading.
Has a new pig cycle come?
The pig cycle has entered a new stage, with new characteristics in supply and demand relations and industry structure.
Sunshine and cold winter weather have hit the prices of pigs and chickens, with prices hitting a two-and-a-half-year low. What happened to the promise of "walking with pigs"?
① Since April, the price of live pigs has been rising continuously, while the selling price of white feather chickens has instead hit a two-and-a-half-year low; ② Insiders and analysts in the industry believe that a resonating effect between chickens and pigs needs a certain trigger. There have been changes in the supply and demand pattern of white feather chickens, and there are still variables as to whether this pig cycle can drive the chicken cycle; ③ White feather chicken companies are fighting against the industry's winter by increasing exports, extending the industry chain and other measures.
Jiangsu has released the implementation plan for controlling the production capacity of live pigs, which can accurately control the inventory of sows.
The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released the "Implementation Plan for Capacity Control of Pig Production in Jiangsu Province (Revised in 2024)."
Performance is beginning to pay off! The selling price of pig enterprises in May reached a new high for the year, and the industry is bullish on the market in the second half of the year.
With the upswing of the pig cycle, the average sales price of listed pig companies in May surpassed the new high for the year, and their performance began to gradually realize. According to a reporter from Cailian Press who interviewed insiders, the supply and demand of pigs will further improve in the second half of the year against the backdrop of 17 consecutive months of liquidation of sows, and pig prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with listed pig companies expected to be profitable for the year.
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Pork prices soared! Listed pig companies have escaped from the "abyss" of losses: how much money can they earn this year?
Recently, pork prices have skyrocketed, and in some areas, they have exceeded the 20 yuan/kg mark. The farming industry has entered a comprehensive profitable mode. According to rough estimates of the production goals and costs of several listed pig companies, all the companies are optimistic about their profits this year. The leading companies, Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), are expected to earn more than 17.7 billion yuan and 8.526 billion yuan respectively.
Northbound Capital Big Order Purchase Report: Xinyisheng received net sales of 244 million yuan
Northbound Capital had a sharp net sale of 5,055 billion yuan today.
Northbound Capital Purchase Report: Ningde Era received a net purchase of 427 million yuan
Northbound Capital made a significant net purchase of 2,748 billion yuan today.
Strong inflow of foreign capital is another trend vane: Middle Eastern tycoons increase their presence in China, and multinational sovereign wealth funds continue to lay out A-shares
① The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Kuwait Investment Authority held a large number of A-share listed companies in the first quarter; ② the Middle East Sovereign Fund also stepped up research on A-shares ③ Other overseas sovereign wealth funds are increasing their layout in the Chinese market.
Nurturing a new cycle: “Earning money” in the second half of the year was a consistent expectation. Was it a small fluctuation or a big market?
Financial Services Association, May 12 (Reporters Liu Jian and Wang Ping An) The timeline for capacity removal is lengthening, and the pig cycle concept seems to be weakening, yet the pig industry is still thirsting for a “new cycle.”
The era of marginal profit: who is silently falling to the bottom and waiting for the “dividend” of pig prices to pick up?
A new cycle has spawned, and the traditional cycle of ups and downs and huge profits is far away. How should pig companies with rapid expansion and debt pressure survive in the future?
Cyclical changes: Profitability attracts capital to pour in, and pig companies sound the trumpet of expanding production
Who is behind cycle failure? Mr. Lu, who has experienced African swine fever, felt it very deeply. “I think it's capital. Raising pigs was very profitable after African swine fever in '19.”
Production capacity is slowly being removed: pig companies' debt ratios are rising, and “they can handle it” even though the pressure is high
The boom in pig farming began, the proportion of large-scale pig farming increased rapidly, production capacity recovered rapidly, and was slow to decline. “Before 2017, the proportion of retail investors was quite large, and the number of retail sows would also fluctuate relatively large, further driving the evolution of the pig cycle.” An industry insider said.
Pig cycle “failure”: the worst loss in history, farmers bluntly called it “too difficult!”
① In the past, the pig cycle was about every 3-4 years. The upward time in this round of the pig cycle was short, and losses on the breeding side were serious, and the industry lamented “it's hard to make money!” ② The formation cycle of the pig industry is a mismatch between changes in supply and demand and the pig growth cycle.
[Data review] Northbound capital increased its holdings for 8 consecutive days, and the turnover of military and new energy ETFs in the Ningde era increased dramatically month-on-month
① Among the top ten transactions of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, Ningde Times ranked third in net purchases. The stock has received net purchases from northbound capital for 8 consecutive trading days. ② Among the top ten ETFs with a month-on-month increase in turnover compared to yesterday, there were two military and three new energy-related ETFs. Among them, the turnover of military ETF (512660) increased 121% month-on-month.
[Data review] Northbound Capital reduced its positions for the fourth day in a row, Zhongji Xuchuang's investment capital to quantitatively grab synthetic biology concept stocks
① The CPO concept stock Zhongji Xuchuang had a net sale of over 200 million dollars by Northbound Capital. The stock has been net sold for four consecutive trading days. ② Synthetic biology concept stocks Lu Kang Pharmaceutical, Rhine Biotech, and Guangji Pharmaceutical were bought by investment and quantitative seats. Among them, Lukang Pharmaceutical was bought by CITIC Securities's Xi'an Suzque Street Sales Department for more than 60 million.
Wen's Co., Ltd. reduced losses in Q1 compared to the previous month, and a single pork pig had basically achieved break-even in March | Financial Report Interpretation
① Wen's Co., Ltd. achieved a net loss of 1,236 million yuan to the mother in Q1; ② The company made progress in cost reduction and efficiency this year. The comprehensive cost of pork pig breeding was reduced to about 7.4 yuan/kg in March, and single-headed pork pigs basically achieved break-even; ③ the company set a target sales target of 30 million to 33 million heads of pork this year.
Everweft Lithium Energy Q1 revenue and net profit double drop, energy storage battery shipments exceed power batteries|Financial Report Interpretation
① Everweft Lithium Energy's net profit for the first quarter of this year was 1,066 billion yuan, down 6.49% year on year; ② The company's energy storage battery shipments doubled year on year, surpassing power batteries.
Send 1.4 billion red envelopes! Sunshine Power's revenue increased by nearly 80% last year. Why did they “stay where they are” in the first quarter of this year?
① Sunshine Power's photovoltaic and energy storage business is booming, with both revenue and net profit reaching new highs in 2023, and plans to distribute cash dividends of about 1,417 billion yuan; ② Revenue declined sequentially in the first quarter of this year, which analysts believe may be related to the slowdown in the growth rate of PV installed capacity.