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Goldman Sachs Revisits 'HALO Trades': The Second Phase Has Just Begun
In its latest report released on July 7, Goldman Sachs’ European equity strategy team stated: The first phase of the HALO trade—valuation repair—has largely been completed, and the second phase has just begun, with the driver shifting from 'repricing' to 'earnings realization.'
SemiAnalysis's latest interview: Storage still has room to double; CPUs are merely supporting actors; CPO implementation delayed until 2029
Founder Dylan Patel stated that Anthropic has become profitable, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $50 billion, refuting doubts about its return on investment (ROI). On the hardware front, memory prices have already quadrupled and are expected to rise another 2–3 times; the structural shortage driven by inference models will persist for several years. Demand for CPUs largely reflects historical catch-up purchases—a short-term 'mini-cycle' rather than a long-term inflection point. Mass production of co-packaged optics (CPO) has been delayed until late 2028, unexpectedly extending the copper interconnects' window of opportunity, while power constraints are forcing data centers to adopt behind-the-meter power generation.
Morgan Stanley told clients it is time to 'sell chips, buy cloud,' and that 'storage'—similar to 'silver'—has peaked.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael compared the trajectory of semiconductor stocks to that of silver, noting that both have experienced parabolic rallies and share commodity-like characteristics. He believes the current correction may not yet be over, with memory chips bearing the brunt of the sell-off. At the same time, he remains bullish on consumer discretionary, regional banks, transportation, and biotechnology, arguing that market leadership should broaden beyond AI-related capital expenditure beneficiaries to a wider range of sectors.
NVIDIA's Kyber Delayed to 2028 – Winners and Losers Across the Supply Chain
Delay changes the pace and, in passing, rewrites the list of winners.
AI Compute Spending Frenzy Fails to Mask Capital Expenditure Jitters: Meta and Anthropic Report New Moves, Prompting Markets to Reassess AI Trades?
Viewed in isolation, Meta—selling AI computing power—and Anthropic—developing its own chips—are pursuing different paths. Yet taken together, they point to a common shift: AI companies are beginning to focus on improving the return on their existing infrastructure investments, rather than simply continuing to ramp up capital expenditures. The market is now seriously debating whether this current super-cycle of capital spending could enter a new phase if the AI industry starts prioritizing capital efficiency over sheer scale of investment.
Shares of Semiconductor and Chip Stocks Are Trading Higher Amid Continued Strength as the Sector Extends Yesterday's Rally. The Sector May Be Experiencing a Lift in Response to Susquehanna Raising Its Forecast for Wafer Fab Equipment Spending.