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Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Seismic Incident at Moab Khotsong Mine
Goldman Sachs Research Analysis: Stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls dampen rate cut expectations, while gold rallies against the backdrop of rising yields
Goldman Sachs attributes the rise in bond yields to strong nominal growth, fiscal concerns, and the crowding-out effect of AI-related debt issuance.
Will “Dr. Copper” become more expensive than “Monster Nickel”? The nearly two-century-old iron law of commodities may be broken!
① Since nickel began trading on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 1987, its price has averaged approximately 2.85 times that of copper. However, in recent weeks, this ratio has plummeted to 1.17, marking the lowest premium between the two metals on record... ② In fact, when calculated based on mine-gate prices, an inversion has already occurred between the two.
Three major investment banks have uniformly adopted a bullish stance on gold, though their underlying rationales differ in emphasis.
Citi is monitoring the decline in oil prices following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs emphasizes continued gold purchases by global central banks, and UBS Group believes that rising global fiscal risks are driving demand for gold allocations.
Citi: Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen in Q4; short-term gold target price raised to $4,800
Citi regards the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in Q4 2026 as its core scenario, anticipating that oil prices may decline rapidly following the reopening, thereby alleviating U.S. inflationary pressures, interest rate burdens, and debt stress. The bank maintains its bullish outlook on gold, expecting that weaker real interest rates and a softer U.S. dollar will further support gold prices. It sets the 0–3 month target price for gold at $4,800 per ounce and projects a price of $5,000 per ounce over the 6–12 month horizon.
Will gold shine again? Societe Generale reinstates bullish stance, Deutsche Bank declares "the cavalry has arrived," and leading asset managers are accelerating position building.
Société Générale has clearly reinstated its long position on gold, arguing that the impact of hawkish policies has been priced in and current downside risks are limited. Deutsche Bank confirms that a turning point for institutional capital has arrived, with hedge funds, asset managers, and banks successively increasing their purchases, although positions remain at low levels. Leading asset management firms such as Amundi, Robeco, and Fidelity have increased their gold holdings during the pullback, while structural factors like central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization provide foundational support for gold prices.