Catalyst Watch: Tech Blitz With Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta on Tap for Earnings
US Stock Market Outlook: Core PCE is higher than expected! Three major indices are strong, and growth tech stocks are booming before the market opens; Wedbush is not afraid of the cooling of the "AI fever": the valuation of growth tech stocks is more heal
BlackRock co-founder: If Trump is elected US president, it will pose a risk to US stocks. Fierce local competitors, iPhone's market share in China dropped out of the top five for the first time in four years. Deckers rose more than 12% before the market, Q1 profit and revenue exceeded expectations, and raised its full-year profit forecast.
Express News | The Passenger Car Association predicts that narrow-definition passenger car retail sales in July will be around 1.73 million, with a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of about 2%.
Cui Dongshu: In the first half of the year, imports of autos decreased by 4% year-on-year to 0.332 million units.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated that the import volume of cars to China has continued to decrease at an average annual rate of about 8% since 2017, with only 0.8 million units expected to be imported by 2023.
China: Consumer goods in the Mainland could lead to GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, or increase household appliance sales by 15%
China's Ministry of Finance issued a notice on “Certain Measures to Support Large-Scale Equipment Upgrades and Replacement of Consumer Goods” by the National Development Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. Proposed the coordination of around RMB 300 billion (below) in ultra-long term special government debt financing, and strongly supported large-scale equipment upgrades and the replacement of old consumer goods. This indicates a further decline in positive fiscal policy, which the Bank expects could drag down GDP growth by around 0.3 percentage points.
Hang Seng Index rose 28 points in half a day, with electronic related stocks being popular. Eastbuy fell 21%.
The US economy grew better than expected in Q1. The Dow rose more than 500 points the night before (25th) and closed up 81 points or 0.2%. Hong Kong stocks rebounded with the external market in the morning, and the Hang Seng Index opened high with 74 points, rose 224 points in the initial stage, saw 17,229 points and then fell back. It had previously fallen as much as 80 points to 16,924 points and then rose 28 points or 0.17% in the morning and reported 17,033 points. The national index fell 4 points or 0.1%, reported 6,012. The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 22 points or 0.7%, reported 3,443. The total turnover of the market in half a day was 60.193 billion yuan. The net inflow of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Connect transactions was 2.42 billion and 14.88 billion respectively.
"Dahang" of Daiwa: Raising the standards for scrapping and upgrading subsidies for automobiles on the mainland should boost fourth-quarter sales, but may also cause concerns about sales in 2025.
Morgan Stanley's research report pointed out that the mainland has raised the subsidy standard for scrapping and updating automobiles. Individuals who scrap the National III and below emission standard fuel passenger vehicles or new energy passenger vehicles registered before a specified date and purchase new energy passenger vehicles or passenger cars with a displacement of 2 liters or less included in the "Catalog of New Energy Vehicles Eligible for Exemption from Vehicle Purchase Tax" will receive a subsidy of 0.02 million yuan for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles and 0.015 million yuan for purchasing passenger cars with a displacement of 2 liters or less. Morgan Stanley believes that the upgraded replacement incentive program has implemented the government's commitment to stimulating automobile demand, but it also exposes domestic consumption.
Intraday quick overview: The gains of the three major indexes have narrowed, golden industrial concepts have strengthened, and Chinagoldintl has risen nearly 5%.
Hang Seng Index rose 0.4%, Science Index rose 0.42%, and National Index rose 0.29%; Commercial vehicle and home appliances stocks joined forces to rise, Sinotruk rose by more than 11%, and Haier Smarthome rose by nearly 5%; Famous anchor Dong Yuhui left the company, East Buy fell by more than 19%.
Major bank rating|Bocom Intl expects Sinotruk, Weichai Power, BYD, Ideals, and Nio Inc to benefit from the old-for-new policy.
On July 26, Gelunhui reported that the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance jointly released "Several Measures to Further Support Large-scale Equipment Updates and Old-for-New Consumption." The Measures increase subsidies for consumers who trade in passenger vehicles for new ones. The subsidy standards for replacing new energy passenger vehicles or passenger vehicles with exhaust capacities of 2.0 liters or less have been increased to RMB 0.02 million yuan (up from RMB 0.01 million yuan) and RMB 15,000 yuan (up from RMB 7,000 yuan) respectively. According to Bocom Intl, this new stimulus policy is significantly stronger than that at the end of April, which will further urge the update of old heavy trucks to low-emission ones and accelerate the phase-out of old fuel-powered passenger vehicles.
In the first half of the year, the mainland's scrapped automobile recycling volume increased by 27.6% annually, with a 72.9% increase in June.
Xu Xingfeng, Director of the Consumer Promotion Department of the National Ministry of Commerce, said at a special press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission that 24 regions have introduced policies for automobile replacement and renewal subsidies, and 20 regions have introduced special documents for replacing old household appliances with new ones. As of noon yesterday (25th), the automobile replacement and renewal information platform had received 0.364 million applications for automobile scrapping and renewal subsidies, with a daily increase of over 0.01 million. In the first half of this year, the national scrap car recycling volume was 2.778 million, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%. In May and June, the recycling volume of scrapped cars in the country increased by 55.6% and 72.9% respectively compared to the same period last year.
U.S. stock market closing | Nasdaq and S&P fell for three consecutive times, Russell 2000 rose more than 1%; technology stocks continued to decline, Google fell another 3%, while Tesla rose nearly 2% against the trend; Ford plunged more than 18% after its
Investors continue to sell technology stocks and instead buy blue chip stocks and small cap stocks. The S&P 500 has fallen for three consecutive days, with chip stocks opening 4% lower and then cutting losses in half, while the Dow Jones and Russell small cap stock indices rose all day, and Tesla rose 4.6% at one point.
US stocks anomaly | Chinese new energy vehicles rise, automobile replacement policy intensified.
On July 25th, Xpeng rose more than 2.8%, NIO Inc. rose more than 2.4%, and Li Auto Inc. rose 2%. In terms of news, Minsheng Securities released research reports stating that on July 25th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued several measures to vigorously support large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement with specific targets, increasing the subsidy standards for scrapping old cars and purchasing new ones. Compared with the previous policy, this policy clarifies the funding channels and specific amounts, with a higher proportion of central government participation and greater support, which is expected to strongly promote the replacement of old cars with new ones and stimulate demand.
Minsheng Securities: Autos sector demand is on the rise as the policy of trading in old vehicles for new ones is strengthened.
This policy further clarifies the funding channels and specific amounts, among which the central government has a high proportion and strong support, which is expected to greatly promote the replacement of old with new and stimulate upward demand.
Li Auto Unveils Scaled-back Car Purchase Incentives
Hang Seng Index fell by 306 points, Meituan dropped more than 5%, and resource and energy stocks were weak.
The USD/JPY exchange rate fell to the edge of 152, triggering a global stock market decline due to arbitrage trading and unwinding. As for the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index opened low by 50 points and the decline expanded. It fell to 16,964 points after a drop of 346 points, and closed at 17,004 points, a decrease of 306 points or 1.8% for the whole day. The national index fell 125 points or 2.1%, closing at 6,016 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 69 points or 2%, closing at 3,421 points. The total turnover of the market for the day was HKD 105.734 billion, with a net outflow of RMB 0.36 billion and 1.64 billion in the southbound trading under the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. The chip equipment manufacturer ASMPT (00522.HK) fell after its performance announcement yesterday.
NDRC and Ministry of Finance: Increase the standards for automobile scrappage subsidies to support the replacement of old household appliances with new ones.
The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a series of measures to accelerate the support for large-scale equipment upgrading and consumer goods replacement. Based on the Implementation Rules of the Subsidies for Automobiles Replacing Old Ones, individual consumers who scrap gasoline passenger vehicles with National Emission Standard III or below or new energy passenger vehicles registered before April 30, 2018, and purchase new energy passenger vehicles or gasoline passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less included in the Catalogue of New Energy Vehicles Exempt from Vehicle Purchase Tax, will be eligible for an increased subsidy of 0.02 million yuan for the purchase of new energy passenger vehicles and 0.015 million yuan for the purchase of gasoline passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less. The measures are also proposed.
Express News | Two departments: raise the standard for scrapping and renewing subsidies for autos.
Hang Seng Index fell below 17,000 in the afternoon, hitting a three-month low, while Meituan declined more than 6%. Local stocks outperformed Evergrande and reached a nearly two-year high in energy.
Dragged down by heavyweight technology stocks such as 'Amazing Seven Heroes', the three major stock indices in the US fell significantly on the night of the 24th; the VIX index, which reflects the market panic, surged 22.6%. Stimulated by the increase in global arbitrage trade liquidation, the yen continued to rise to a two-and-a-half-month high, rising 1% at its highest to 152.22 against the US dollar. Safe-haven sentiment has risen sharply, and major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell across the board today (25th), with the Nikkei index closing down 1,285 points or 3.3%. Following the decline in the past two days, the Hong Kong stock market fell below the 17,000 mark in the afternoon, dropping 335 points at its lowest to a three-month low of 16,975, and is currently reporting 17,010, continuing its decline by 300.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, mainland Chinese passenger vehicle sales for domestic brands increased by 18.8% year on year in June and by 23.9% in the first half of the year.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, mainland Chinese passenger vehicle sales for domestic brands reached 1.432 million vehicles in June, an increase of 8.2% month-on-month and 18.8% year-on-year. By the first half of 2024, cumulative sales of domestic passenger vehicles reached 7.419 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, reflecting the strong growth trend of the domestic passenger vehicle market.
LG Energy's second-quarter profits plummeted 58%, and the forecast for electric car demand for the entire year will soften.
①South Korean battery giant LG Energy Solutions (LGES) announced a 58% year-on-year drop in profits for the second quarter; ②It is predicted that the growth of the global electric vehicle market this year will slow down from last year's 36% to slightly higher than 20%, especially in the United States and Europe; ③Based on this, LG Energy expects its sales in 2024 to decline by more than 20% year-on-year, and will also slow down capacity expansion in the second half of the year.
No Data