M6AMAIN Micro AUD/USD Futures(SEP4)
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Micro AUD/USD Futures(SEP4) News
Australia is about to release the CPI for the second quarter, and whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates in August depends on it!
The inflation data released on July 31st in Australia may significantly affect policy expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on August 6th. Recently, the RBA stated that the bank remains vigilant about the upward risks of inflation. If CPI data for the second quarter rises, this could break the balance and force the RBA to act. The strong market opinion is that if there is a rate hike, it will be the most reluctant rate hike in history, and a reversal may occur in the second quarter of 2025.
Computer Modelling by Morgans Suggest RBA Can Sit Pat On Rates -- Market Talk
Australia's Private-Sector "Neared Stagnation" in July: PMI Report
DFA: With CPI moving towards the target range, raising interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia would be a mistake.
On July 24th, Guolong reported that Krishna Bhimavarapu, an Asia-Pacific economist at Dimensional Fund Advisors, said that recent data released in Australia shows that the year-on-year inflation rate in the second quarter of this year may accelerate again. But the reasons for the earlier interest rate cut are also increasing. The job market is rapidly cooling, and the inflation rate may drop to the target of 2%-3% set by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year, which will be much earlier than the central bank's current prediction of the end of 2025. Therefore, raising interest rates now would be a policy mistake, as the economy is at a critical point, and the unemployment rate may rise to a level that the central bank cannot afford.
RBA Rate Hike Would Be a Mistake as CPI Heads to Target Band -- Market Talk
In July, Judo Bank's comprehensive PMI in australia fell to 50.2, a six-month low, according to "Economy".
According to Judo Bank/s&p global, after seasonally adjusted, the Australian manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for July rose from 47.2 to 47.4, reaching a two-month high. The manufacturing output PMI preliminary value dropped from 46.8 to 46.3, reaching a four-month low. In the same month, the preliminary value of the Australian services PMI dropped from 51.2 to 50.8, reaching a six-month low. The comprehensive PMI preliminary value for July in Australia dropped from 50.7 to 50.2, reaching a six-month low. The private sector business operations in Australia for July were close to stagnation, with companies facing a decrease in new orders for two consecutive months, and the slowdown slightly increased. Employment has risen,
Australian Flash PMI Falls to Six-Month Low; Price Pressures Still Evident
Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Rises to 47.4 in July, Services PMI Drops to 50.8
Here's When NAB Says the RBA Will Cut Interest Rates
Huge Inflation Milestone for Aussies as RBA Could Cut Interest Rates
Australia Shares on Track to Pare Recent Losses -- Market Talk
Stressed Mortgage Holders Numbers in Australia May Be Set to Fall -- Market Talk
Australian currency market awaits Q2 CPI data.
On July 22nd, Guosen Securities | Prior to the release of Q2 CPI data on July 31st, the Australian currency market became anxious. This sentiment stems from the great uncertainty about whether the data will unexpectedly be higher, thereby setting the stage for a rate hike in August. Most of this year's inflation data has been disappointing for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which remains vigilant because it knows that its external evaluation is almost entirely dependent on its success or failure in restraining price pressures. Currently, the bond market has already digested the possibility of a rate hike in August, which is about 30%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) expects overall Q2 growth.
Australia's Unemployment Rate Rises Slightly to 4.1% Despite Strong Job Creation
Australia's Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.1% in June
RBA Rates Decision 'a Closer Call' After Jobs Data -- Market Talk
Australian Job Growth Beats Estimate, Fueling Rate-Hike Bets
Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, as expected, and the labor market remains relatively tight.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that in June, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia rose by less than 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, in line with market expectations. Bjorn Jarvis, director of labor statistics at ABS, said that employment increased by about 0.05 million, while the number of unemployed increased by about 0.01 million during the same period, causing the unemployment rate to rise slightly to 4.1% and the labor force participation rate to increase to 66.9%. Jarvis said that the labor force participation rate was only 0.1 percentage point lower than the historical high of 67% set in November 2023. The employment-to-population ratio increased by 0.1 percentage point to 64.2%, also approaching the historical high of 64 set in November 2023.
Australia's Unemployment Rate Ticked Higher in June
As expected! Australia's unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4%, FXEmpire: call for Australian dollar/US dollar, aiming for 0.700.
The unemployment rate in Australia is expected to remain unchanged at 4% in June, and the Australian dollar/US dollar is expected to rise in the short term, targeting the key level of 0.700.