How much longer will the US stock market continue to fall? Historical data shows that, following a major rally, sell-offs last an average of 25 trading days; it has already been 21 days.

The recent sharp pullback in the U.S. stock market, particularly the steep decline in momentum stocks, has left investors uncertain about the future direction of the market. According to the latest analysis by Morgan Stanley, historical data suggests that the current sell-off may be entering its 'later stages.' However, the most vulnerable speculative segments of the market still face the risk of further 'deleveraging,' and the short-term outlook remains far from optimistic. As per Morgan Stanley's report, since peaking on October 15, the momentum index composed of long-short strategies has fallen by more than 14%. More notably, this round of sell-offs, led by previously strong-performing stocks, has now lasted for 21 trading days and is approaching a historical average of approximately 25 trading days.

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