Unexpected escalation of the Iran conflict accelerates global LNG capacity expansion—could supply glut be imminent?

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a sudden 20% drop in global LNG supply, driving the March Asian benchmark price up to $30. However, analysts note that as Asian buyers shift toward extra-regional sources to secure energy supplies, this could trigger a surge in project development in North America and elsewhere. Coupled with buyers turning to solar power and coal, this trend is likely to accelerate a third wave of even larger-scale and more prolonged LNG oversupply in the medium to long term.

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