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Iran strongly condemned the U.S. maritime blockade operation and declared that it would launch an 'unprecedented' military counterattack.
A senior Iranian security official condemned the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as 'piratical behavior,' vowing a swift counteraction. He explicitly stated that Iran possesses greater resilience and highlighted the stark contrast in public sentiment between the two nations.
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Warnings of continuously rising oil prices have emerged, but why has the U.S. stock market remained unfazed?
Oil prices have experienced significant volatility due to the situation in Iran, yet US equities have defied the trend by reaching new record highs—this rare 'decoupling' phenomenon is underpinned by a strong earnings season and option structures that have created a 'paper prosperity.' However, market breadth has narrowed to its lowest level since the dot-com bubble, with the VIX climbing back above 20. The entire rally is based on the single assumption that 'conflicts will eventually be resolved.' Should a ceasefire collapse, this sandcastle will crumble.
JPMorgan warned: If the Strait of Hormuz does not fully resume operations until July, oil prices could soar to $120.
①JPMorgan recently stated that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not fully resume until July, international oil prices may retest the peak level of nearly $120 per barrel seen during this round of U.S.-Iran tensions. ②The bank noted that current market pricing reflects expectations for a swift recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz: traffic is expected to return to half of normal levels by May and fully recover by June.
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