This Insider Has Just Sold Shares In Royal Gold
We'd be surprised if Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) shareholders haven't noticed that the Senior VP & General Counsel, Randy Shefman, recently sold US$131k worth of stock at US$263 per share. On
Citi: Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen in Q4; short-term gold target price raised to $4,800
Citi regards the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in Q4 2026 as its core scenario, anticipating that oil prices may decline rapidly following the reopening, thereby alleviating U.S. inflationary pressures, interest rate burdens, and debt stress. The bank maintains its bullish outlook on gold, expecting that weaker real interest rates and a softer U.S. dollar will further support gold prices. It sets the 0–3 month target price for gold at $4,800 per ounce and projects a price of $5,000 per ounce over the 6–12 month horizon.
Gold Market Review and Catch-up Trade Strategy: Bullish on KGC, OGC, RGLD, and TFPM
Key Takeaways: Gold and mining stocks have performed strongly in recent periods, but certain constituents exhibit valuation mismatches. Over the past month, gold prices rose by 10%, while the GDX Index surged by 33%; year-to-date, gold has gained 4%, compared with an 18% increase for the GDX. Despite the sector’s robust overall performance, shares of Kinross Gold (KGC), OceanaGold (OGC), Royal Gold (RGLD), and Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) have lagged their peers, even though they offer attractive valuations.
Will gold shine again? Societe Generale reinstates bullish stance, Deutsche Bank declares "the cavalry has arrived," and leading asset managers are accelerating position building.
Société Générale has clearly reinstated its long position on gold, arguing that the impact of hawkish policies has been priced in and current downside risks are limited. Deutsche Bank confirms that a turning point for institutional capital has arrived, with hedge funds, asset managers, and banks successively increasing their purchases, although positions remain at low levels. Leading asset management firms such as Amundi, Robeco, and Fidelity have increased their gold holdings during the pullback, while structural factors like central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization provide foundational support for gold prices.
Gold bulls gather momentum! Goldman Sachs sets year-end target of $4,900, with central bank demand as key support
① Goldman Sachs Research's latest forecast projects that gold prices will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by robust demand from central banks seeking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves; ② Meanwhile, the firm warns that investors' use of gold derivatives for hedging could exacerbate price volatility.
Gold selling pressure is nearing exhaustion! Deutsche Bank: Even a hawkish Federal Reserve struggles to curb the strength of precious metals, with the next rally potentially driven by proactive capital inflows.
The gold market is standing at a critical turning point.
How to Profit From September Stock-market Weakness
By Mark Hulbert Some industries do well in September, despite overall market weakness September is almost here, and pumpkin spice is not the only thing that is expected to do well this month. It's
The most hawkish Jackson Hole speech since 2009! Waller’s debut pushes two-year U.S. Treasury yields up by over 10 basis points.
The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note rose by more than 10 basis points intraday, hitting a one-month high. Measured by the immediate spike in the two-year yield following his speech, Waller’s remarks triggered a stronger market reaction than Powell’s Jackson Hole speeches in 2022 and 2023. The swaps market is now pricing in the possibility of multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes before July next year.
Gold takes off again! Gold mining stocks surged 43% this month, outperforming chip stocks even at their peak.
① The MSCI Global Gold Miners Index has risen 43% month-to-date, poised to record its largest single-month gain on record; ② Even at their peak earlier this year, chip stocks could not match this performance; ③ International gold prices have climbed for five consecutive weeks and are on track to post their biggest monthly increase since 1999.
As the market shifts from "interest rate trades" to "US dollar depreciation trades," the logic behind gold’s rally has changed.
UBS Group deconstructs the current 17% rebound as a "two-act play": the first act was driven by central bank gold purchases, physical demand, and short-covering; the second act was triggered by the doubling of U.S. Treasury buybacks under the Treasury Department, sparking concerns over fiscal credit risk and shifting gold's pricing framework from "real interest rates" to "currency debasement"—meaning gold prices can rise even amidst high interest rates. The bank explicitly highlights rising upside risks in its medium-to-long-term forecasts, with a bullish scenario target reaching as high as $6,500.
Bitcoin and gold funds attract $7 billion in inflows as trading in "scarce assets" makes a comeback
Gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a combined $7 billion over the past five trading sessions, setting a record for net capital inflows. GLD recorded net inflows of $3.4 billion, while IBIT saw $1.5 billion, placing both among the top ten U.S. ETFs by inflows. Amid expectations of fiscal expansion, gold and Bitcoin—both characterized by constrained supply—share the same hedging logic, with the distinction between them increasingly blurring.
Global Spotlight! At 20:30 tonight, the Federal Reserve’s "preferred inflation gauge" will be released. Will the interest rate script be rewritten?
① At 20:30 Beijing Time on Wednesday (August 26), the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for July will be released; ② As the Federal Reserve’s “preferred inflation gauge,” the latest PCE data will provide a key reference for assessing the U.S. economic outlook and serve as an important catalyst for repricing U.S. interest rate expectations.
Gold Trading Alert: Gold Prices Approach the 4,700 Threshold! PCE Inflation Data and Jackson Hole Speeches: Will Prices Continue to Surge or Peak?
On Tuesday (August 25), spot gold fluctuated at elevated levels, briefly touching $4,696.55 per ounce during the session to mark a three-month high since May 14, before retreating to near the $4,600 threshold and ultimately closing at $4,658.67, a marginal gain of 0.13%. Beneath this daily candlestick pattern of an intraday surge followed by a pullback lie three underlying forces powerful enough to reshape the global logic of asset pricing. Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, noted: “This is merely a pause in the rally.” A pause rather than an end—this assessment accurately captures the delicate position gold currently occupies.
Reports indicate significant progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, with an alleged consensus reached on ensuring free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Russian media, sources in Pakistan and Iran stated that the United States and Iran have reached a consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement, which includes ensuring free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are expected to announce related developments in the coming days and initiate negotiations and technical meetings based on the memorandum of understanding previously brokered by Pakistan. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Tehran has informed its negotiating representatives that if the United States wishes to reopen the strait, it must rectify its errors and return to its prior commitments. Iranian media reported that the recent visit of the Pakistani Army Chief to Iran was intended to create space for negotiations and to convey Iran’s conditions and position to the United States.
BofA Securities Maintains Royal Gold(RGLD.US) With Sell Rating, Maintains Target Price $218
BofA Securities analyst Lawson Winder maintains $Royal Gold(RGLD.US)$ with a sell rating, and maintains the target price at $218.According to TipRanks data, the analyst has a success rate of 60.3%
Analysts Offer Insights on Materials Companies: Royal Gold (RGLD) and Sociedad Quimica Y Minera SA (SQM)
Gold attracts $22 billion in three weeks as the “currency depreciation trade” becomes increasingly crowded; how much further can this rally go?
The weakening of the U.S. dollar has resonated with expectations of currency depreciation, while Bessent’s efforts to stabilize U.S. Treasuries have unexpectedly ignited a rally in gold. Over the past three weeks, gold futures have seen record inflows exceeding $22 billion, leading to rapidly crowding positions. Wall Street warns that gold’s drivers have shifted from fundamentals to momentum chasing, and hawkish signals from Jackson Hole could pose a risk of short-term correction.
Gold approaches $4,600; is options flow driving the rally to the next level?
Gold surges toward $4,900, while silver could rally to $90
Bessent’s bid to stabilize the bond market falls short as gold and Bitcoin rise first: Market awaits Warsh’s move this week
Market focus has shifted to Federal Reserve Chair Walsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, where his remarks on inflation and the policy path could determine the subsequent trajectory of U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, and risk assets.
Dalio: U.S. debt crisis could arrive within three years; recommends selling bonds and buying gold and Bitcoin
In his latest article, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, pointed out that the United States faces an annual fiscal deficit of up to $2 trillion, with approximately $10 trillion in debt requiring refinancing. He warned that unless the current trajectory changes, a debt crisis could emerge "within three years, plus or minus two." He advised investors to reduce their bond holdings, increase gold allocations to 10%–15% of their portfolios, and hold a small position in Bitcoin as a hedge against risk.