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Even if Trump "fires" Powell, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to "listen" and cut interest rates.
Even if Trump truly dismisses Powell, interest rate cuts may not proceed smoothly.
Federal Reserve officials: Interest rates may remain high for a longer time, but a rate cut is still expected this year.
① The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, stated that due to rising inflation risks, the Federal Reserve may maintain the current interest rate levels longer than expected, but there is still a possibility of rate cuts this year; ② In the economic projections summary (SEP) released last month, the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast of two rate cuts this year.
Express News | In two days of continuous pressure, Trump again calls on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Federal Reserve's Daly: Tariffs have not yet affected the USA economy, lowering interest rates is not urgent, and there is still room for balance sheet reduction.
San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that she feels reassured by the market's expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2025, but inflation risks remain, and there is no urgent need for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Despite the uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policy, it has yet to impact the USA economy. She mentioned that there is still room for the Fed's balance sheet reduction and that a tighter policy needs to be maintained over a longer period in the future.
Express News | Fed's Daly: If inflation proves to be more persistent, there may be fewer than two rate cuts this year.
Trump and Powell can't escape a confrontation.
Trump realizes that his tariff policy may bring short-term economic pain, so he is seeking the Federal Reserve to ease this blow by lowering interest rates; however, Powell is concerned that an early rate cut could exacerbate the inflation problem, which has already surpassed the 2% target, especially given that tariffs may further increase prices.