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The average long-term mortgage rate in the USA has once again decreased, and the number of single-family residence starts decreased in May.
This week, the borrowing cost of US residential mortgages has once again declined, and the average interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages has dropped to the lowest level since early April. At the same time, last month, the annual rate of single-family housing starts, which account for most of the housing construction in the United States, decreased by 5.2% after seasonal adjustment.
Express News | Two large bets were placed in the USA interest rates futures market, indicating that the expectation of a rate cut in July will increase.
Apollo Global's chief economist: no hope for Fed rate cuts this year.
Torsten Slok, the chief economist of Apollo Global Management, predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates this year. Despite the Fed's statement in December last year that it would slow down monetary tightening policies, Slok believes that the loose financial environment will offset the impact of borrowing costs by maintaining inflation stickiness and economic resilience.
Last week, the 30-year mortgage/mortgage interest rate in the USA dropped to 6.87%.
On June 21st, Gelunhui reported: U.S. 30-year mortgage/mortgage rates fell to 6.87%, a new low since April, with the previous value of 6.95% and a peak of 7.09% in the week of May 9th.
Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council of the White House: There are ample reasons to expect further progress in inflation.
On June 20th, Gelonghui reported that Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council at the White House, said there is every reason to believe that the U.S. will continue to make progress on inflation issues. In the first quarter, inflation in the U.S. was abnormal, but that problem did not continue into the second quarter. Progress on inflation in terms of housing and medical care costs is not enough yet.
Fed Hawk: It will take up to two years to achieve inflation targets.
According to Kashkari from the Federal Reserve, wage growth remains too high, and it is currently impossible to bring the inflation rate back to the target of 2%.
Express News | Bank of America: The strong dollar is expected to persist for a longer period of time.
The so-called “inflation ghost” in the United States seems to be lingering. CFOs surveyed expect cost pressures to remain.
57% of the surveyed CFOs expect that the price growth of their company's products will exceed pre-epidemic levels.
Economists: Slowdown in the US housing market increases the possibility of interest rate cuts.
On June 20th, LPL Financial's chief economist Jeffrey Roach stated in a report that the slowdown in US housing construction will further ease the price pressure on commodity products such as wood. The housing data released today for May was lower than expected, with new home starts contracting by 5.5%. Roach said, "Weak demand and inflation easing should prompt the Fed to start cutting interest rates later this year." He pointed out that the data shows a slowdown in the housing component of GDP in the second quarter.
Fed's Kashkari: It may take one or two years for inflation to fall back to 2%.
On June 20, Guo Lianhui | Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that the Federal Reserve will restore the inflation rate to the target level of 2%, but it may take one or two years. It will take longer to return to the level of 2%, but I believe we will achieve this goal." He emphasized that the direction of interest rates will depend on the economy, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are very healthy and strong, and he hopes "this situation can continue." Kashkari said that there are some signs of weakness on the edge. Regarding the proposal of the Federal Reserve to increase the capital requirements of large banks, Kashkari stated that he was surprised by the opposition to the plan.
US stock early trading: Witness history! The S&P broke through 5500 points to hit a new high; the AI concept continued to rise, with super micro computers up nearly 10%.
Nvidia rose more than 3% to reach a new high, and the market cap of the three giants in the US stock market has exceeded $10 trillion, which is the first time in history.
US Dollar Overlooks Jobless Claims Miss, Deeper Current Account Deficit
The US dollar maintained gains over most other major currencies in early North American trade on Thursday even after weekly unemployment claims came in higher than was expected, and the current account deficit deepened.
US Initial Jobless Claims Falls Less Than Expected in Week Ended June 15
Initial claims were at a level of 216,000 in the May 18 employment survey week.
Express News | Survey: Inflation causes 46% of Americans to struggle to maintain a balance between income and expenses.
Peeking at the truth of the US economy from a cardboard box? Bank of America: Another 'recession warning' lifted.
Bank of America recently stated that as prices in the US packaging industry are set to rebound, it signals the potential end of the "cardboard box recession" in the country.
USA's economy is reaching its limit of collapse! Analysts predict that within two years, 1.9 trillion yuan in savings will be exhausted and the consumer capacity of the population has already dried up.
Analysts warned that Americans have spent $19 trillion of savings in just two years, and with declining retail sales, the economy may be in trouble.
The market firmly believes that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, and the rise in US bonds will offset the losses this year.
Investors are betting that a slowdown in US inflation will convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively.
The MBA's loan application index in the United States increased by 0.9% last week, rising for the second consecutive week according to the Economy magazine.
Data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) in the USA shows that seasonally adjusted mortgage applications increased by 0.9% in the 2nd week of June, rebounding for the second consecutive week after falling 5.2% in the last week of May. The association stated that mortgage rates fell last week following the latest inflation data and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a 30-year mortgage rate falling to 6.94 basis points, the lowest level since the end of March. Home purchase mortgage applications increased slightly on a weekly basis, but remained lower than the same period last year. The association predicts that with more housing supply, home sales will increase later this year.
The US NAHB builder confidence in June decreased to its lowest level since last December, which was lower than expected, according to the "Economic Daily".
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) monthly survey in the USA shows that the NAHB/Wells Fargo & co. housing market index, which reflects builder confidence, fell to 43 points in June, a decrease of 2 points from the previous month and the lowest since December 2023, lower than the market's expected 45 points. The current sales conditions index fell by 3 points to 48 points; the index measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell by 4 points to 47 points; and the prospective buyer traffic index fell by 2 points to 28 points.
Fed officials balance strong economy with rate risks: Data-driven rate decisions, but when is the time to cut interest rates?
Susan Collins, Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, discussed the timetable for possible interest rate cuts by the Fed and the driving factors for policy in an interview.