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AUD/HKD News
Kai-Tong Macro: Singaporean Monetary Authority's economic outlook supports monetary policy easing in October.
On July 26th, Grace Finance | Shivaan Tandon, emerging Asia economist at Capital Economics, said that the slightly moderate statement made by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in its July meeting has given Capital Economics more confidence that MAS may relax its policy in October. Tandon said that MAS now appears to have eased its concerns about inflation, as it has made adjustments to its statements in July and April. He also said that MAS did not provide any important clues about its next steps, but seems more confident about the inflation outlook. In addition, MAS may lower the nominal effective exchange rate range for the Singapore dollar.
Express News | The Monetary Authority of Singapore maintains its monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive time.
Australia is about to release the CPI for the second quarter, and whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates in August depends on it!
The inflation data released on July 31st in Australia may significantly affect policy expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on August 6th. Recently, the RBA stated that the bank remains vigilant about the upward risks of inflation. If CPI data for the second quarter rises, this could break the balance and force the RBA to act. The strong market opinion is that if there is a rate hike, it will be the most reluctant rate hike in history, and a reversal may occur in the second quarter of 2025.
Computer Modelling by Morgans Suggest RBA Can Sit Pat On Rates -- Market Talk
UBS Group's central bank survey: Nearly 70% of respondents expect that the global economy is most likely to experience a soft landing.
According to a survey conducted by UBS Group Asset Management, of the 40 central banks surveyed globally, 66% expect the most likely occurrence of a soft landing for the global economy, while only 16% estimate that the global economy will enter a recession.
DFA: With CPI moving towards the target range, raising interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia would be a mistake.
On July 24th, Guolong reported that Krishna Bhimavarapu, an Asia-Pacific economist at Dimensional Fund Advisors, said that recent data released in Australia shows that the year-on-year inflation rate in the second quarter of this year may accelerate again. But the reasons for the earlier interest rate cut are also increasing. The job market is rapidly cooling, and the inflation rate may drop to the target of 2%-3% set by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year, which will be much earlier than the central bank's current prediction of the end of 2025. Therefore, raising interest rates now would be a policy mistake, as the economy is at a critical point, and the unemployment rate may rise to a level that the central bank cannot afford.
RBA Rate Hike Would Be a Mistake as CPI Heads to Target Band -- Market Talk
In July, Judo Bank's comprehensive PMI in australia fell to 50.2, a six-month low, according to "Economy".
According to Judo Bank/s&p global, after seasonally adjusted, the Australian manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for July rose from 47.2 to 47.4, reaching a two-month high. The manufacturing output PMI preliminary value dropped from 46.8 to 46.3, reaching a four-month low. In the same month, the preliminary value of the Australian services PMI dropped from 51.2 to 50.8, reaching a six-month low. The comprehensive PMI preliminary value for July in Australia dropped from 50.7 to 50.2, reaching a six-month low. The private sector business operations in Australia for July were close to stagnation, with companies facing a decrease in new orders for two consecutive months, and the slowdown slightly increased. Employment has risen,
Australian Flash PMI Falls to Six-Month Low; Price Pressures Still Evident
Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Rises to 47.4 in July, Services PMI Drops to 50.8
Hong Kong Inflation Modest in June
Here's When NAB Says the RBA Will Cut Interest Rates
Express News | Dutch International: CPI cooling is not enough to prompt the Monetary Authority of Singapore to take action.
Huge Inflation Milestone for Aussies as RBA Could Cut Interest Rates
Australia Shares on Track to Pare Recent Losses -- Market Talk
Stressed Mortgage Holders Numbers in Australia May Be Set to Fall -- Market Talk
Hong Kong's Consumer Prices Rise 1.5% in June
In June, Hong Kong's composite CPI was up 1.5% year-on-year, higher than expected.
On July 22, Gelunhui reported that Hong Kong's June composite CPI increased by 1.5% on a yearly basis, exceeding the expected 1.20% and the previous value of 1.20%.
Australian currency market awaits Q2 CPI data.
On July 22nd, Guosen Securities | Prior to the release of Q2 CPI data on July 31st, the Australian currency market became anxious. This sentiment stems from the great uncertainty about whether the data will unexpectedly be higher, thereby setting the stage for a rate hike in August. Most of this year's inflation data has been disappointing for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which remains vigilant because it knows that its external evaluation is almost entirely dependent on its success or failure in restraining price pressures. Currently, the bond market has already digested the possibility of a rate hike in August, which is about 30%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) expects overall Q2 growth.
The highest 6-month fixed deposit rate for Hong Kong dollars has broken the record again at 4.39%, earning HKD 21,950 in interest for a 1 million 6-month deposit.
On July 21st, according to Hong Kong Economic Times, in the second half of July, a total of 6 banks lowered their HKD fixed deposit interest rates (an increase of 5 from last week), namely Citibank, HSBC, Metropole, PAObank, Mox, and CCB.