Will the FED lower interest rates this year? Bank of America predicts two contrasting scenarios: the critical point is at the end of summer!
① Economists at Bank of America predict that the U.S. economy and monetary policy may follow two completely different paths in 2025; ② One is a stable labor market, where tariffs lead to a resurgence of inflation, preventing the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates; the other is that if economic issues arise, the Federal Reserve may quickly cut rates by 75 basis points.
Express News | Institutions: The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates until December.
Interest rate Analyst: There is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the next 12 months.
Analysts at Columbia Threadneedle have indicated that investors face the risk of potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as well as significant rate cuts in the coming months. Edward Al-Hussainy, Senior Interest Rate and Currency Market Analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, mentioned that if the Federal Reserve needs to raise rates to curb inflation, investors could find themselves in a difficult position next year. Al-Hussainy stated in a press conference on Tuesday that the likelihood of a rate increase is only about 15%, but he suggested that the Federal Reserve may indeed raise rates within the next 12 months.
[Direct Hit on the Asian Market] Trump suddenly sends new signals! After two days of plummeting oil prices, they stabilize, while bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts increase.
As the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran seems to be holding, Asia's stock markets rose slightly on Wednesday (June 25), while U.S. bond traders increased their bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
A dangerous signal has emerged in the 7.5 trillion market! Even the war in the Middle East cannot save the dollar from its "disfavor" fate.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and others have found that during market turbulence, funds are no longer flocking to Buy US dollars. Cross-currency swaps indicate a continued weakening of demand for US dollars.
Dollar financing arbitrage has gained favor from international capital, with Emerging Markets portfolios achieving an ROI of 8%, surpassing traditional MMFs.
Currently, global financial markets are showing new trends. As the volatility of the dollar Exchange Rates falls below traditional financing channels, the appeal of conducting Emerging Markets MMF investments has significantly increased.
