M6BMAIN Micro GBP/USD Futures(SEP4)
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Micro GBP/USD Futures(SEP4) News
It is still uncertain whether the United Kingdom's central bank will cut interest rates for the first time in August.
It is still uncertain whether the Bank of England will announce its first interest rate cut since 2020 next week, due to the regulations before the July 4th election. Major decision-makers have not spoken publicly for more than two months, making uncertainty greater than usual. Whether recent higher-than-expected service inflation is enough to prevent the central bank from lowering interest rates from the 16-year high of 5.25% is anyone's guess. Interest rate futures indicate a 50% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut on August 1. Although a Reuters survey shows that most economists still expect a rate cut, the Bank of England may wait until the next meeting on September 19 to make a decision.
BOE Could Cut Interest Rates in August But Vote Would Be Tight
BOE Could Deliver Three Interest Rate Cuts in 2024, ING Says
UK CBI Order Book Balance Worsens in July
Sterling's Losses Could Be Limited If BOE Cuts Rates in August -- Market Talk
Survey shows: economists expect the Bank of England to make its first rate cut in August and reduce interest rates twice this year.
Most economists expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% next week.
U.K. Economic Momentum Should Endure, PMIs Suggest -- Market Talk
S&P: British Private Sector Output Growth Speeds Up in July, Flash Data Shows
UK Business Activity Picks up in July, PMI Data Shows
Analyst evaluates the July PMI data of United Kingdom.
On July 24th, Globin Daily reported that Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist of S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that the UK's preliminary PMI survey data in July marked an encouraging start to the second half of the year, with output, orders, and employment increasing at a faster rate amid a rebound in business confidence, while price pressure eased. "The first business survey after the election painted a popular picture for the new government, with manufacturing and service companies optimistic about the future, and demand for reports surged again, and recruitment increased. At the same time, the rate of inflation fell to its lowest level in three and a half years."
In July, the manufacturing PMI of United Kingdom was 51.8, higher than expected.
On July 24th, the UK's manufacturing PMI for July was 51.8, a new high since July 2022, with an expected value of 51.1 and a previous value of 50.9. The service PMI for July was 52.4, with an expected value of 52.5 and a previous value of 52.1. The composite PMI for July was 52.7, with an expected value of 52.6 and a previous value of 52.3.
UK Preliminary Services PMI Improves to 52.4 in July Vs. 52.5 Expected
Gilt Yields Fall Ahead of U.K. PMI Data
Sterling Could Fall If U.K. Rate Cut Bets Rise After Possible Canada Cut
Pound Sterling Exhibits Weak Performance Ahead of Preliminary S&P Global PMIs
Express News | Cater Fund Macro: Large-scale pay raises in the UK public sector may exacerbate inflation.
Sometimes the Devil Is in the Details – Commerzbank
Deutsche Bank: Inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom may rise again.
On July 23, Glon Hui | Deutsche Bank's research report today stated that the core inflation in the United Kingdom over the past year has been mainly due to commodity prices. There are three reasons for the decline in commodity prices: many consumers purchased durable goods during the epidemic, resulting in no immediate need to buy new durable goods. Tightened income has caused consumers to reduce durable goods consumption. The significant easing of the supply chain has brought additional pressure on prices. However, this situation may not last. Actual income is now rising again. At some point, consumers will need durable goods again. In addition, shipping has recently become more expensive. In short, inflationary pressures may rise again.
As Goldman Sachs warns of the risk of a pullback in the British pound, asset management giant Amundi is bullish on it.
The british pound's rally in the global market has caused asset management giant Amundi to switch from a bear to a bull.
Will the British pound rise? Europe's largest asset management company has also joined the call camp!
Amundi said that the British pound may still be undervalued and pointed out an excellent opportunity to enter the long position...