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Micro CHF/USD Futures(SEP4) News
Swiss National Bank's interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end: economists predict the last rate cut will be in September.
According to a survey conducted from July 5th to 11th, the Swiss National Bank's last interest rate cut of 25 basis points will take place in September. Prior to this, the bank had already cut interest rates twice in March and June.
Commodity costs have decreased, and Swiss franc inflation has unexpectedly slowed down.
On July 4th, GuoLianHui reported that the unexpected easing of Switzerland's inflation has put Swiss central bank officials at ease. The Swiss Federal Statistical Office said on Thursday that CPI rose 1.3% from the same period last year in June. This increase was lower than economists' expectations and also lower than May's 1.4% increase, the fastest increase this year. Compared with the same period last year, commodity costs fell by 0.2%, while services increased by 2.4%, which played a role in cooling the economy. The core inflation rate also fell to 1.1%. The Swiss National Bank has cut interest rates in its most recent two meetings and launched an easing policy before global peers such as the European Central Bank. Given that the benchmark interest rate in Switzerland is currently 1.25.
The annual inflation rate in Switzerland in June was 1.3%, lower than expected.
Swiss Franc's annual inflation rate for June is 1.3%, lower than the previous 1.4%. The predicted value is 1.4%.~
Express News | Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates again.
Pan Macro: Swiss National Bank rate cut is not over yet.
June 20th, Guolonghui | Melanie Debono, senior macro economist of Pansun Europe, believes that after the 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, the Swiss central bank is expected to continue cutting interest rates. The Swiss National Bank believes that the average inflation rate in 2024, 2025 and 2026 will be slightly lower than the March forecast, making its forecast closer to Pansun's macro forecast. Debono said:"The most important thing is that the Swiss National Bank believes that at the end of its forecast range, namely the first quarter of 2027, the inflation rate is only 1%, and we believe that this is the threshold for further interest rate cuts." If the Swiss National Bank forecasts inflation at the end of the period
Kathryn Macro: Swiss franc unlikely to cut interest rates again this year.
On June 20th, KIT Finance Macro European economist Adrian Prettejohn stated in a report that due to significant inflation pressures, the Swiss National Bank may not cut interest rates again this year. The Swiss National Bank has lowered its key interest rate for the second time in a row, from 1.5% to 1.25%. Labor compensation is growing at a strong pace, while service industry inflation remains high, indicating that potential pressures have not eased. In fact, although the Swiss National Bank slightly lowered inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, the magnitude of the reduction is small and does not seem to reflect a significant change in outlook.
Market analysis: Swiss franc may cut interest rates again in September.
Gelonghui June 20 | Analyst Karsten Junius of J Safra Sarasin stated that as expected, the Swiss central bank lowered its policy interest rate as underlying inflation fell again and long-term inflation expectations were downgraded again. A key trigger for the rate cut may be that the CPI index, excluding rents, recently fell below 1%, while economic activity remains below potential levels. We expect the Swiss central bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in September, which will bring monetary policy back to neutral levels.
SNB Cuts Deposit Rate to 1.25%, as Expected
Swiss Franc's central bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled.
On June 20th, Guolonghui reported that the Swiss National Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, marking the second consecutive rate cut and in line with market expectations.
Swiss France Seen Supported by Safe-Haven Bids Even If SNB Cuts Rates -- Market Talk
Sheng Bao Banks: It is unlikely that short-term risk aversion inflows will push the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates.
June 20th, Guolong News - Charu Chanana, the head of foreign exchange strategy at Shengbao Bank, said that due to the political turmoil in Europe (especially France), safe-haven demand has driven the recent strength of the Swiss franc, and the market expects the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates. However, Switzerland's inflation trend, namely the 1.4% inflation rate in May 2024, and the expectation that the inflation rate for the second to fourth quarters of this year will remain around 1.4%-1.5%, may weaken the prospect of rate cuts, especially if the Swiss National Bank believes the recent strength of the Swiss franc is only temporary. If the Swiss National Bank does not cut interest rates on Thursday, the Swiss franc may further appreciate.
Express News | Nomura expects the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Express News | The cost of hedging Swiss franc volatility has seen its largest increase since 2015. The market is anxious as they await the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision.
The outlook for a rate cut by the Swiss Central Bank remains unclear, with overnight hedge costs for the Swiss franc seeing their largest increase since 2015.
The Swiss National Bank will make the next interest rate decision on Thursday, and it is uncertain whether decision makers will choose to cut interest rates and imply support for the Swiss franc through intervention.
Swiss franc's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May was 2.4%, higher than expected.
On June 6th, Guolonghui reported that Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May was 2.4%, the highest since January 2022; expected 2.30%, previous value 2.30%.
KaiTou Macro: Inflation data indicates that the Swiss National Bank will maintain its interest rate in June.
On ****, Guolong News | Kaitou Macro Economist Adrian Prettejohn said that given that Swiss inflation meets the Swiss National Bank's expectations and first quarter GDP data shows economic growth has rebounded, the Swiss National Bank may remain unchanged at its June 20th meeting. He said in the report that as rent increases are offset by a decline in core commodity prices, the inflation rate in May remained at 1.4%. Inflation rates are expected to decline in the coming months, as surveys of service companies show that sales price pressures have normalized. However, he added that the magnitude and speed of the decline in service sector inflation may be less than expected,
Express News | Swiss CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in May, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month. The year-on-year Swiss CPI in May was 1.4%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
Switzerland's GDP for the first quarter was 0.6% year-on-year, with an forecast of 0.7%, compared with the previous value of 0.6%. Switzerland's GDP for the first quarter was 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, expected to be 0.3%, compared with the previous value o
Switzerland's GDP for the first quarter was 0.6% year-on-year, with an forecast of 0.7%, compared with the previous value of 0.6%. Switzerland's GDP for the first quarter was 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, expected to be 0.3%, compared with the previous value of 0.3%. Switzerland's leading economic index for May was 100.3, with an forecast of 102.1. The previous value was revised from 101.8 to 101.9.
SNB President Jordan: The main risk facing Swiss inflation is the weakening of the Swiss franc
GRONGE, May 30 | SNB Governor Jordan said that the main risk facing Swiss inflation is the weakening of the Swiss franc, and the SNB can deal with this risk by selling foreign exchange. Jordan said that a rise in the natural interest rate (r*) will also pose a risk to the inflation outlook. The central bank estimates that Switzerland's current natural interest rate is around 0%. “There is reason to believe that r* has increased, or is likely to increase in the next few years. We see this as a small upside risk to the inflation forecast.” The Swiss franc has been falling since the beginning of 2024 and recently reached its weakest level against the euro since April last year. Commercial banks in Central Switzerland
SNB President: The SNB doesn't have to follow other central banks in adjusting interest rates.
SNB President: The SNB doesn't have to follow other central banks in adjusting interest rates.