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Biden and Trump held two offline debates ahead of schedule, covering topics such as the economy and inflation.
On June 16th, Groen Hui reported that the Democratic Party's President Biden challenged his Republican predecessor Trump last month, proposing to abandon the decades-old tradition of autumn debates and hold two offline debates in advance, which was accepted by the latter. The two debates will be hosted by the American Cable News Network (CNN) and theAmerican Broadcasting Company (ABC) on June 27th and September 10th, respectively. According to the campaign memo obtained by Reuters, Biden has three major themes in the first debate, including abortion rights, democratic conditions, and the economy. Trump's team pointed out that immigration, public safety, and inflation are key issues before the debate.
Song Xuetao from Tianfeng Macro: Inflation is difficult to slow down, and the Federal Reserve is unable to act.
If the Fed believes that inflation is difficult to control while economic growth is still on the right track and raising interest rates is not under consideration, then there is naturally no need to take action.
Bullish sentiment in the gold market has become optimistic due to the bullish economic situation in the United States.
On June 15th, Guo Longhui reported that the precious metal website Kitco showed that after this week's performance, 13 Wall Street analysts surveyed were more optimistic about the recent prospects of gold. Eight analysts (62%) expect gold prices to continue to rise next week, two analysts (15%) expect a decline, and the remaining three analysts (23%) expect gold prices to remain flat. In the online survey, a total of 216 ordinary investors voted, they are more cautious than institutional investors, but overall they are positive. 117 people (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week, and another 49 people (23%) predict a
Express News | Oxford Economics Research Institute CEO: The Fed may start cutting interest rates in September.
New York Fed: Neutral interest rates stable at a low level in the first quarter.
Data released by the New York Fed on Friday showed that the neutral interest rate remained at a low level in the first quarter of this year.
Fed's Mester: Despite the improvement in data, inflation risks still tend to rise.
Cleveland Fed President Mester said that despite the pleasing latest inflation data, she still believes that inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
Chicago Fed President: May inflation data paves the way for interest rate cuts.
Zhifubao Finance learned that Chicago Fed Chairman Guo Ersi said on Friday that if future inflation data is as good as May's consumer price index, the Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates. He pointed out that a strong labor market means that the Fed can rely on inflation to drive interest rate cuts. Guo Ersi said in a fireside chat at the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit, "This data is just for a month, but it's very good." According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the May consumer price index was almost flat, rising only 0.00575%, while the market expected a 0.1% increase.
Fed's Mester: Expects long-term interest rates to be 3% in the latest forecast.
On June 15th, Guo Longhui reported that the Federal Reserve's Mester stated that inflation faced upward risks and the job market was faced with two directions of risks; in the latest forecast, the long-term interest rate is expected to be 3%; the inflation path will determine whether the interest rate can be lowered; 2% inflation rate is achievable, and we will achieve this goal.
Is the time for the dollar's shine over as the bulls retreat?
Analysts believe that the decline of two major advantages may suppress the popularity of the US dollar.
Federal Reserve's hawkish rare concession: don't wait too long to cut interest rates!
Mester said the latest CPI data is "encouraging news," and the Federal Reserve will not wait for inflation to fall to 2% before cutting interest rates.
Betting on the US dollar has been cut for six consecutive weeks. Has the current rising trend of the dollar reached its peak?
Despite the potential for the US dollar to record its best weekly gain since February this year, forex traders are betting that the US yield advantage will not last.
Trillion-dollar asset management giant warns: The Fed may still be forced to turn to interest rate hikes!
Market expectations for the magnitude of interest rate cuts this year are far higher than that of the Federal Reserve, but PGIM Fixed Income says that this view may quickly change in the next six months.
Smoke is rising! The market is ready to confront the Federal Reserve again.
For a long time, the Wall Street adage of "don't pick a fight with the Fed" has always been effective. What about this time?
Under the "hawkish" Federal Reserve, how far can other central banks that are trying to catch up go?
If other central banks insist on taking the lead, the forex market may usher in a bloody storm.
Will the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve exacerbate global central bank divergences and prolong the era of high interest rates?
The latest predictions from Federal Reserve officials indicate that they only expect to cut interest rates once this year, a decrease from the three predicted in March.
Interest rate cut in disguise? The Federal Reserve will pave the way ahead of schedule this summer!
The basis for adjusting the Fed's policy is often prepared in advance, and this time may not be an exception.
US Dollar Holding up Well Despite Rate Pricing
It’s been an interesting week for financial markets. The most striking development in our opinion is the fact that the market is back to pricing two full rate cuts from the Fed in 2024, and yet, the Dollar has held up relatively well considering.
What will happen to the US stock market in the second half of the year? Split in views among insiders at Morgan Stanley.
According to the chief global strategist of Goldman Sachs, the US stock market will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year, while the chief market strategist continues to sound the alarm of a market crash.
In May, inflation in the USA was lower than expected, and the probability of interest rate cuts in September has risen to around 60%.
The US inflation remained stable in May, with no price increases for the first time since June 2021. The annual inflation rate has dropped to 3.3%, slightly lower than the market's expectation of 3.4%. The unexpected drop in inflation rate has ignited investors’ hope that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in the coming months.
Catalyst for interest rate cut! The inflation indicator most favored by the Federal Reserve may see its smallest increase in the past six months.
The unexpected downturn of CPI and PPI has boosted Wall Street's optimism, and the Federal Reserve's predictions may be out of date.