Goldman Sachs: Divergence among Chinese bank stocks to accelerate in the second half; large banks remain preferred

Goldman Sachs published a research report noting that China's banking sector continues to face growth challenges due to slowing credit expansion. However, it expects stock performance to remain divergent in the second half of the year, primarily driven by balance sheet resilience. Large banks remain its top preference, with a favorable view on China Construction Bank (0939.HK) and Bank of China (3988.HK). The firm maintains its 'Buy' rating on China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) but has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 2% each, citing concerns over whether asset quality can improve. Goldman Sachs forecasts that, on average, the banks under its coverage will report year-over-year growth of 5% in pre-provision operating profit and 3% in net profit for the second quarter, with large banks continuing to

AASTOCKSJul 15 12:47

The public fund custody landscape is being reshuffled, with the long-standing market leader dethroned—broad-based index funds are the driving force behind this shift.

① China Construction Bank (CCB) surpassed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in custody assets under management with RMB 4.89 trillion, leading by approximately RMB 78.2 billion. ② ICBC experienced significant redemptions from several large-cap broad-based ETFs, causing a notable decline in its custody scale. ③ CCB demonstrated stronger capacity to absorb newly launched funds this year, with 'Longying FOF' contributing nearly RMB 10 billion.

cls.cnJul 15 11:45

Citi expects Chinese banks’ second-quarter revenue to rise 6.8% year-over-year, maintaining a positive outlook on large and regional banks.

Citi published a report forecasting that the covered Chinese banks will maintain resilient revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026, with year-over-year revenue growth expected at 6.8%, down from 7.4% in the first quarter of 2026, primarily due to a high base effect from trading gains. Second-quarter revenue growth is expected to be supported by several factors, including still-robust year-over-year growth in corporate loans—albeit slightly slower than in the first quarter—stabilizing net interest margins on a sequential basis, and strong growth in fee income. The bank expects asset quality among Chinese banks to remain stable in the second quarter of 2026; however, Chinese banks are likely to build additional loan loss provisions amid strong revenue growth as a precautionary measure, resulting in an estimated year-over-year earnings growth of 2%.

AASTOCKSJul 14 14:40

Zhongtai Securities: Preview of Listed Banks' 2026 Interim Reports — Interest Income Supports Revenue Resilience, Profit Performance Expected to Remain Stable

There are two key investment themes in bank stocks: first, urban and rural commercial banks with regional advantages and high certainty, particularly those operating in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Fujian; second, the rationale of high dividend yields and stability.

Zhitong FinanceJul 14 07:30

Express News | Analysis of Consecutive Limit-Up Stocks on July 13: Weak Short-Term Sentiment; Defensive Sectors Such as Pharmaceuticals and Banking Gain Strength

BreakingsJul 13 15:49

Bank stocks surged sharply against the market trend.

Serve as a safe haven for capital

Gelonghui FinanceJul 13 14:18