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US Stock Market Outlook: Core PCE is higher than expected! Three major indices are strong, and growth tech stocks are booming before the market opens; Wedbush is not afraid of the cooling of the "AI fever": the valuation of growth tech stocks is more heal
BlackRock co-founder: If Trump is elected US president, it will pose a risk to US stocks. Fierce local competitors, iPhone's market share in China dropped out of the top five for the first time in four years. Deckers rose more than 12% before the market, Q1 profit and revenue exceeded expectations, and raised its full-year profit forecast.
Express News | The Passenger Car Association predicts that narrow-definition passenger car retail sales in July will be around 1.73 million, with a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of about 2%.
US stocks anomaly | Chinese auto stocks rose before the market, and Morgan Stanley predicts that the mainland's increase in scrap car replacement subsidies should boost fourth-quarter sales.
On July 26th, Chinese auto stocks rose before the market, NIO rose more than 1% and Xpeng rose 0.85%. Deutsche Bank released a report indicating that the mainland has increased the scrappage subsidy standards for automobiles. Personal consumers who scrapped national standard III or below emissions gasoline vehicles or new energy passenger vehicles registered before a specified date and who purchased new energy passenger vehicles or 2 liters and below gasoline passenger vehicles included in the Catalog of New Energy Vehicles Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax will receive an increased subsidy. The subsidy standard will be raised to RMB 0.02 million for the purchase of new energy passenger vehicles and RMB 0.015 million for the purchase of 2 liters and below gasoline passenger vehicles. The bank believes in stable vehicle models.
Cui Dongshu: In the first half of the year, imports of autos decreased by 4% year-on-year to 0.332 million units.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated that the import volume of cars to China has continued to decrease at an average annual rate of about 8% since 2017, with only 0.8 million units expected to be imported by 2023.
China: Consumer goods in the Mainland could lead to GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, or increase household appliance sales by 15%
China's Ministry of Finance issued a notice on “Certain Measures to Support Large-Scale Equipment Upgrades and Replacement of Consumer Goods” by the National Development Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. Proposed the coordination of around RMB 300 billion (below) in ultra-long term special government debt financing, and strongly supported large-scale equipment upgrades and the replacement of old consumer goods. This indicates a further decline in positive fiscal policy, which the Bank expects could drag down GDP growth by around 0.3 percentage points.
"Dahang" of Daiwa: Raising the standards for scrapping and upgrading subsidies for automobiles on the mainland should boost fourth-quarter sales, but may also cause concerns about sales in 2025.
Morgan Stanley's research report pointed out that the mainland has raised the subsidy standard for scrapping and updating automobiles. Individuals who scrap the National III and below emission standard fuel passenger vehicles or new energy passenger vehicles registered before a specified date and purchase new energy passenger vehicles or passenger cars with a displacement of 2 liters or less included in the "Catalog of New Energy Vehicles Eligible for Exemption from Vehicle Purchase Tax" will receive a subsidy of 0.02 million yuan for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles and 0.015 million yuan for purchasing passenger cars with a displacement of 2 liters or less. Morgan Stanley believes that the upgraded replacement incentive program has implemented the government's commitment to stimulating automobile demand, but it also exposes domestic consumption.
Intraday quick overview: The gains of the three major indexes have narrowed, golden industrial concepts have strengthened, and Chinagoldintl has risen nearly 5%.
Hang Seng Index rose 0.4%, Science Index rose 0.42%, and National Index rose 0.29%; Commercial vehicle and home appliances stocks joined forces to rise, Sinotruk rose by more than 11%, and Haier Smarthome rose by nearly 5%; Famous anchor Dong Yuhui left the company, East Buy fell by more than 19%.
Major bank rating|Bocom Intl expects Sinotruk, Weichai Power, BYD, Ideals, and Nio Inc to benefit from the old-for-new policy.
On July 26, Gelunhui reported that the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance jointly released "Several Measures to Further Support Large-scale Equipment Updates and Old-for-New Consumption." The Measures increase subsidies for consumers who trade in passenger vehicles for new ones. The subsidy standards for replacing new energy passenger vehicles or passenger vehicles with exhaust capacities of 2.0 liters or less have been increased to RMB 0.02 million yuan (up from RMB 0.01 million yuan) and RMB 15,000 yuan (up from RMB 7,000 yuan) respectively. According to Bocom Intl, this new stimulus policy is significantly stronger than that at the end of April, which will further urge the update of old heavy trucks to low-emission ones and accelerate the phase-out of old fuel-powered passenger vehicles.
In the first half of the year, the mainland's scrapped automobile recycling volume increased by 27.6% annually, with a 72.9% increase in June.
Xu Xingfeng, Director of the Consumer Promotion Department of the National Ministry of Commerce, said at a special press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission that 24 regions have introduced policies for automobile replacement and renewal subsidies, and 20 regions have introduced special documents for replacing old household appliances with new ones. As of noon yesterday (25th), the automobile replacement and renewal information platform had received 0.364 million applications for automobile scrapping and renewal subsidies, with a daily increase of over 0.01 million. In the first half of this year, the national scrap car recycling volume was 2.778 million, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%. In May and June, the recycling volume of scrapped cars in the country increased by 55.6% and 72.9% respectively compared to the same period last year.
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US stocks anomaly | Chinese new energy vehicles rise, automobile replacement policy intensified.
On July 25th, Xpeng rose more than 2.8%, NIO Inc. rose more than 2.4%, and Li Auto Inc. rose 2%. In terms of news, Minsheng Securities released research reports stating that on July 25th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued several measures to vigorously support large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement with specific targets, increasing the subsidy standards for scrapping old cars and purchasing new ones. Compared with the previous policy, this policy clarifies the funding channels and specific amounts, with a higher proportion of central government participation and greater support, which is expected to strongly promote the replacement of old cars with new ones and stimulate demand.
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Minsheng Securities: Autos sector demand is on the rise as the policy of trading in old vehicles for new ones is strengthened.
This policy further clarifies the funding channels and specific amounts, among which the central government has a high proportion and strong support, which is expected to greatly promote the replacement of old with new and stimulate upward demand.
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Hang Seng Index fell by 306 points, Meituan dropped more than 5%, and resource and energy stocks were weak.
The USD/JPY exchange rate fell to the edge of 152, triggering a global stock market decline due to arbitrage trading and unwinding. As for the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index opened low by 50 points and the decline expanded. It fell to 16,964 points after a drop of 346 points, and closed at 17,004 points, a decrease of 306 points or 1.8% for the whole day. The national index fell 125 points or 2.1%, closing at 6,016 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 69 points or 2%, closing at 3,421 points. The total turnover of the market for the day was HKD 105.734 billion, with a net outflow of RMB 0.36 billion and 1.64 billion in the southbound trading under the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. The chip equipment manufacturer ASMPT (00522.HK) fell after its performance announcement yesterday.
NDRC and Ministry of Finance: Increase the standards for automobile scrappage subsidies to support the replacement of old household appliances with new ones.
The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a series of measures to accelerate the support for large-scale equipment upgrading and consumer goods replacement. Based on the Implementation Rules of the Subsidies for Automobiles Replacing Old Ones, individual consumers who scrap gasoline passenger vehicles with National Emission Standard III or below or new energy passenger vehicles registered before April 30, 2018, and purchase new energy passenger vehicles or gasoline passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less included in the Catalogue of New Energy Vehicles Exempt from Vehicle Purchase Tax, will be eligible for an increased subsidy of 0.02 million yuan for the purchase of new energy passenger vehicles and 0.015 million yuan for the purchase of gasoline passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less. The measures are also proposed.
Express News | Two departments: raise the standard for scrapping and renewing subsidies for autos.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, mainland Chinese passenger vehicle sales for domestic brands increased by 18.8% year on year in June and by 23.9% in the first half of the year.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, mainland Chinese passenger vehicle sales for domestic brands reached 1.432 million vehicles in June, an increase of 8.2% month-on-month and 18.8% year-on-year. By the first half of 2024, cumulative sales of domestic passenger vehicles reached 7.419 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, reflecting the strong growth trend of the domestic passenger vehicle market.
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