Powell's first day of Congressional hearings: there is also a possibility of an early interest rate cut, and it cannot be ruled out that tariffs have a lower-than-expected impact on inflation.
When asked about the possibility of an interest rate cut in July, Powell said, "Many paths are possible," and it may be seen that inflation is not as strong as expected. A decline in inflation and a weak labor market could mean an earlier interest rate cut. Powell stated that tariffs' impact on inflation will be visible in the data for June and July, and at least some tariffs will be borne by consumers, which has not fully restored price stability. The reason the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates so far is that professional forecasters expect inflation to rise this year, and tariffs bring uncertainty; the economic outlook is "very uncertain." The real estate market is indeed affected by interest rate policies, but in the long term, it does not affect the supply and demand of the market, as interest rates are at a moderately restrictive level.
Bessent: The key differences in the "Big Beautiful" bill will be resolved within 48 hours, and the Senate must start voting by Friday in order for Trump to sign it next week.
Bessent stated that Republican members of both the House and Senate are negotiating key differences regarding the cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT), with a solution expected to be found within the next 24 to 48 hours. The Senate could initiate the multi-day voting procedure for this bill before Friday, after which the House would need to vote on the legislation, allowing Trump to sign it before the self-imposed deadline of July 4.
Bond king Gross: The US stock market is about to enter a "small bull market," while US bonds are in a "small bear market."
Gross believes that the US stock market will enter a "small bull market" driven by AI. Despite facing tariff and geopolitical risks, economic growth can still reach 1-2%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is unlikely to fall below 4.25%. The surge in fiscal deficits and the weakening of the dollar will drive up inflation, posing challenges to US Treasury bonds. He emphasizes that neither direction of the trend will be overly dramatic, reflecting relatively moderate market expectations.
Support Powell! Federal Reserve Board member: tariffs are expected to "continuously" push up inflation and should continue to be observed.
① Federal Reserve Governor Barr expects that Trump's tariff policy will bring sustained upward pressure on prices, which may impact economic growth and the unemployment rate; ② Barr and Powell both stated that there is no urgency to cut interest rates at present and will watch the economic situation, but there is a division within the Federal Reserve, with some officials supporting a rate cut in July.
Futu Morning News | Tensions in the Middle East are easing, Powell does not rule out the possibility of an early rate cut, both the S&P and Nasdaq hit their highest closing levels in four months.
Israel plans to fully reopen its airspace, and the Iranian president states readiness to engage in dialogue at the negotiating table; on the first day of Powell's congressional hearing: reiterates a wait-and-see approach, will consider actions conditionally, and does not rule out the possibility of an early interest rate cut.
Powell confronts Trump in Congress: The tariff policy is the culprit for the Federal Reserve's decision not to lower interest rates.
Powell stated that if it were not for the new round of tariff measures initiated by the Trump administration on April 2, the Federal Reserve might have already started to cut interest rates.
Are stablecoins the "lifeline" for the dollar?
On June 17 local time, the U.S. Senate passed the "Guidance and Establishment of the United States Stablecoin National Innovation Act" with a vote of 68 in favor and 30 against, establishing regulatory rules for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar.
The senior officials of the Federal Reserve have differing opinions on the interest rate cut in July, with several officials warning that tariffs may again push up inflation.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that he expects tariffs to drive up inflation and supports a wait-and-see approach to interest rate adjustments.
The EU is preparing to take more tariff countermeasures to put pressure on the US.
Bjoern Seibert, chief of staff to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, stated that before the deadline for EU-US trade negotiations on July 9, it is necessary to coordinate positions within the EU and prepare for more countermeasures against the US to pose a "real threat" to the US.
Powell's hearing: the upcoming tariffs will have a significant impact on inflation, and there is no urgency to take action.
① Fed Chairman Powell stated that inflation is expected to rise soon, and the Fed will continue to watch the economic situation before deciding whether to cut interest rates; ② Powell indicated that most Fed policymakers support a rate cut later this year, but he personally disagrees with a rate cut at the July meeting.
Express News | Williams from the Federal Reserve stated that the U.S. economy is in good shape, and the job market remains strong. A moderately tight MMF policy provides space to review new data.
Express News | Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: (When asked why interest rates are not being cut) This is due to the uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on the scale of inflation and the duration for which inflation might persist.
Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve will adopt a wait-and-see attitude before lowering interest rates, awaiting a clear display of the impact of tariffs.
① In the previously released testimony, Powell emphasized once again that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position and is not in a hurry to cut interest rates; ② He also reiterated the uncertainty that tariffs bring to the short-term economic outlook; ③ This year, the Federal Reserve has maintained a position of not lowering interest rates, but internal differences have gradually begun to surface.
U.S. stocks in the early market | The market is closely watching Powell's testimony, with the three major Indexes maintaining high-level fluctuations; most Cryptos concept stocks have risen, with Coinbase up over 7%, and "the first stock of stablecoins" C
On the evening of June 24, Beijing time, U.S. stocks opened higher on Tuesday. President Trump announced the effectiveness of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, marking a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
U.S. Stock Outlook | Tensions in the Middle East ease, all three Equity Index futures rise, Nasdaq futures up 1%; a "hawk-dove" split at the Federal Reserve! Powell will testify on Capitol Hill.
JPMorgan: Capital expenditures on data centers are growing strongly, and Asian Technology stocks are expected to rise another 15-20% this year.
US stock market gold mining | Tesla surged more than 8% overnight, the official debut of Robotaxi sparked market excitement; "the first stock of stablecoins" Circle's stock price continues to hit new highs, with a cumulative increase of about 750% since t
Northern Trust's overnight increase exceeded 8%, with stock prices reaching a new historical high! The company responded to merger rumors: plans to continue operating independently.
Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares Declares Quarterly Distribution of $0.2564
China Voices 'Strong Dissatisfaction' Over EU Ban on Chinese Firms in Medical Device Tenders
The whispers of "interest rate cuts next month" are quietly emerging! Tonight, all of Wall Street will closely watch Powell.
① Although it has been less than a week since last week's Federal Reserve meeting in June, Chairman Powell will obviously once again be the focus of Wall Street... ② According to the schedule, Powell will present his semi-annual MMF policy report testimony to the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 PM Beijing time tonight.
Asia Markets Rise After Trump Announces Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire; Hong Kong Leads Gains