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Deutsche Bank (‘Major Brokerage’): Pop Mart (09992.HK) recorded its first year-to-date decline in mainland China online sales in May, likely marking the onset of a downward cycle.
Deutsche Bank published a report stating that, using Magic Mirror Insight data to track Pop Mart's (09992.HK) online sales in China, May sales declined by 5% year-over-year and by 14% month-over-month. May's performance was 25% below the average monthly sales level seen in the second half of 2025. Notably, May marked the first time since 2024 that the bank's tracked online sales data for Pop Mart recorded negative growth, reversing its previously robust growth momentum. The bank noted that the latest data corroborates its earlier forecast that Pop Mart’s domestic market will face increasing sales pressure starting from the second quarter of 2026. The bank believes this pressure will intensify in the second half of 2026.
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CICC maintains Pop Mart's 'Outperform' rating with a target price of HK$218.
CICC released a research report stating that it maintains its adjusted net profit forecasts for Pop Mart (09992) at RMB 13.3 billion and RMB 15.5 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively. The current share price implies adjusted P/E multiples of 16x and 13x for 2026 and 2027. As a globally leading player with scarcity value and significant growth potential, the company is currently trading at a historically low valuation. Near-term catalysts are expected, and sequential earnings improvement is anticipated in the medium term. CICC reaffirms Pop Mart as its top pick within the sector, maintains an 'Outperform' rating, and sets a target price of HK$218, implying adjusted P/E multiples of 19x and 16x for 2026 and 2027, representing 19% upside from the current price.
CICC Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on Pop Mart International Group Limited (735)