Credit Suisse: Unexpected reduction in Prime rates becomes a Mid-Autumn Festival gift, expected stable or slight upward trend in Hong Kong property prices for the rest of the year.
UBS Group released a research report stating that the USA has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Hong Kong banks immediately announced that they will follow suit and reduce the Hong Kong dollar best lending rate by 25 basis points. This unexpected move became a "Mid-Autumn Festival gift" for the Hong Kong property market, bringing good news. The interest rate for new first-hand residential mortgages will be reduced from 4.125% to 3.88%, which will help narrow the negative interest rate differential between mortgage payment and rental return on investment. Based on the market's prediction of interest rate cuts in the USA for the next two years, UBS Group currently expects that the interest rate for new mortgages in Hong Kong can be reduced to 2.9% by the end of next year, which is a further 97 basis points lower than the current 3.88%. Assuming that the Hong Kong dollar best lending rate can be further reduced by 25 basis points this year.
Daiwa lists the sensitivity analysis of Hong Kong property stocks to profit impact from interest rate cuts (table).
Morgan Stanley released a report stating that about 60% of Hong Kong property stocks' loans are calculated based on floating interest rates. If the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) drops by 100 basis points, it is expected to increase the average industry profit by approximately 5%. The bank provided a sensitivity analysis of the impact on Hong Kong property stocks' profit if the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) drops by 100 basis points: Stock│Percentage of loans with floating interest rates last year│Savings in interest expenses forecast│Projected impact on profit New World Development (00017.HK)│56%│1.112 billion yuan│+31.1% Kerry Properties (00683.HK)│5%
Real estate and house rental companies perform well, with Cheung Kong Property (01113.HK) and Wharf REIC (01997.HK) both rising more than 4%.
There is a 62% chance of a 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. Real estate and house rental stocks listed in Hong Kong generally rose, with CK Asset (01113.HK) reaching a high of 32.35 yuan. It is now at 32.1 yuan, up 4.22%, with a turnover of 3.7493 million shares and a total investment of 0.119 billion yuan. Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK) hit a high of 81.15 yuan. It is now at 80.9 yuan, up 2.41%, with a turnover of 2.4563 million shares and a total investment of 0.197 billion yuan. Henderson Land (00012.HK) is now at 24.35 yuan, up 2.31%, with a turnover of 1.3696 million shares and a total investment of 3,323.0.
The strategy of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut layout is here! Warren Buffett has already placed his bets in advance, why are real estate stocks expected to become the 'strongest interest rate cut trade'?
The strong performance of US real estate stocks is driven by market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. As mortgage rates decrease, homebuyers' activity will significantly increase, promoting further growth in the industry.
Hysan Development Alters Dividend Record Date
HYSAN DEVELOPMENT To Go Ex-Dividend On September 9th, 2024 With 0.06927 USD Dividend Per Share
September 6th (Eastern Time) - $HYSAN DEVELOPMENT(HYSNY.US)$ is trading ex-dividend on September 9th, 2024.Shareholders of record on September 9th, 2024 will receive 0.06927 USD dividend per share
Citigroup has listed the investment ratings and target prices for Hong Kong real estate stocks (table) in Daihang.
Citi's report lists the investment rating and target price of Hong Kong real estate stocks: Stock│Investment Rating│Target Price Goodwell (00004.HK)│Sell│18.9 yuan Henderson (00012.HK)│Buy│24 yuan Sino Land (00014.HK)│Buy│13.9 yuan New World Development (00016.HK)│Buy│87 yuan Hang Lung Properties (00017.HK)│Sell│6.8 yuan Sino Land (00083.HK)│Buy│9.2 yuan Hang Lung Properties (00101.HK)│Buy│7.3 yuan Kerry Properties (00683.HK)│Buy
Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823.HK) and The Wharf Real Estate Investment Company Limited (01997.HK) rose more than 3%, bullish by Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley expects that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) will decrease to 2.75% next year, and the mortgage rate under the best rate of -1.75% will decrease to 3.25%. It is expected that Hong Kong residential property prices will rebound by 5% next year, while they will decline by 8% this year, a drop of 30% from the peak. For every 100 basis point drop in HIBOR, it can increase the average profit of Hong Kong real estate developers by 5%. Morgan Stanley is bullish on New World Development (00016.HK), Link REIT (00823.HK), and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997.HK) because they have stable profit prospects and...
《Da Hang》Taibao is expected to lower Hong Kong's interest rate to 3.25% next year, and real estate prices rebound by 5%.
Morgan Stanley's research report points out that Hong Kong is in a unique position and can benefit from lower interest rates in the United States and higher economic growth in China. The market expects the United States to cut interest rates, which is positive for Hong Kong's real estate developers. Currently, the valuation of real estate developers is at its lowest level in history, while providing a sustainable high dividend yield. Morgan Stanley predicts that Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) will drop to 2.75% in one month next year, and the actual mortgage rate under the best rate (P-1.75%) will drop to 3.25%. The bank believes that compared to retail and office space, the residential market in Hong Kong will benefit more from the US interest rate cut.
HYSAN DEV: Interim Report 2024
Fitch Ratings downgraded Henderson Land Development (00014.HK) rating to 'BBB' with a stable outlook.
Rating agency Fitch has downgraded the long-term foreign issuer default rating of Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd (00012.HK) from "BBB+" to "BBB" with a stable outlook. Fitch also downgraded the senior unsecured ratings of Henderson and the ratings of its $4 billion medium-term note program issued by Henderson (MTN) Limited, as well as the ratings of the outstanding bonds under the commercial paper program, from "BBB+" to "BBB". This downgrade is based on Fitch's expectation that Henderson's interest coverage ratio will remain under pressure during the period from 2024 to 2026, given the ongoing challenges in office rents and weak outlook for retail properties. Additionally, the downward pressure on market interest rates...
Analysts' Opinions Are Mixed on These Real Estate Stocks: Acadia Realty (AKR), Hysan Development Co (OtherHYSNF) and VICI Properties (VICI)
Express News | It is reported that Abercrombie & Fitch plans to return to Hong Kong and rent two storefronts in prime locations.
Guo Sizhi: The market hit a new monthly high, but trading volume continues to be light.
Francis Lun, Vice Chairman of the Hong Kong Stocks Analyst Association, stated that the market set a new high within the month. The Hang Seng Index opened lower at 17,663 points yesterday morning, then dropped further to 17,624 points before gradually stabilizing. Due to the lack of significant selling pressure and the emergence of support from stabilizing bids, the entire market began to turn around. By the afternoon, the Hang Seng Index even rose 81 points to 17,879 points, once again reaching a new high within the month. This represents an expansion of the intramonth volatility to 1,438 points from the low of the month at 16,441 points on the 5th. Of course, at that time, the Hang Seng Index also once again surpassed the 10
Goldman Sachs: Hysan Dev (00014) rated as "neutral", target price raised to HKD 15.2.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its earnings per share forecast for Hysan Development (00014) for fiscal years 2024 to 2026 by 7% to 0%.
HYSAN DEVELOPMENT To Go Ex-Dividend On September 6th, 2024 With 0.06927 USD Dividend Per Share
August 26th (Eastern Time) - $HYSAN DEVELOPMENT(HYSNY.US)$ is trading ex-dividend on September 6th, 2024.Shareholders of record on September 6th, 2024 will receive 0.06927 USD dividend per share on
China CITIC Bank International: Raised the target price of Hysan Dev (00014) to HK$13, upgraded to "outperform the market" rating.
Bank of China International has raised its profit forecast for Hysan Development (00014) for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026 by 4.7% to 14.9%.
"Dah Sing" raised ICBC International's rating to "outperform the market" and raised the target price to 13 yuan, entering the transformation harvest period.
China Everbright International issued a research report stating that Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings (00014.HK) management highlighted the achievements of the company's transformation at the mid-term performance conference and stated that this year is the company's harvest period. China Everbright International stated that the growth drivers that Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings will soon embrace include more open periods within the next 12 months for its "Lei Yuan" project, further improvement in the rental rate of its Shanghai office, the opening of the retail space in Shanghai's "Lei Yuan" project, the completion of the Albert Road Connector project and the comprehensive connection of the Lei Yuan district by 2026. The bank also pointed out that the aforementioned developments should be sufficient for Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings to overcome any weaknesses in its Hong Kong office business. In addition, considering Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings' better rental income performance
HSBC Research raised its target price for Henderson Land Development (00014.HK) to 11.8 yuan, with first-half performance exceeding expectations.
HSBC Research published a research report, indicating that Henderson (00014.HK) outperformed expectations in the first half of the year, with a slight decrease of 0.7% in underlying profit. Retail rental income increased by 11% year-on-year, which was surprising and exceeded expectations. However, due to the capital expenditure of the Lyun Lane Shan Road project (Lee Gardens Phase 8), the bank expects its asset-liability ratio to show an upward trend in the next two years and only ease off in 2027. In addition, the weak Hong Kong office market may offset the positive impact of the improvement in retail business or slow down its profit recovery pace. HSBC Research stated that if Henderson raises its dividend, or Lee Gardens Phase 8
HYSAN DEV To Go Ex-Dividend On September 5th, 2024 With 0.27 HKD Dividend Per Share
August 23rd (Beijing Time) - $HYSAN DEV(00014.HK)$ is trading ex-dividend on September 5th, 2024.Shareholders of record on September 6th, 2024 will receive 0.27 HKD dividend per share on September 20
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